Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 0.016633 0.018819 0.021185 0.023938 0.027053 0.030470 0.034504
2025-09-28 0.012646 0.015534 0.018927 0.023208 0.028473 0.034741 0.042781
2025-10-05 0.011124 0.014457 0.018597 0.024124 0.031318 0.040381 0.052694
2025-10-12 0.009932 0.013517 0.018179 0.024693 0.033581 0.045308 0.062010
2025-10-19 0.009044 0.012810 0.017906 0.025317 0.035846 0.050313 0.071779
2025-10-26 0.008090 0.011874 0.017178 0.025171 0.036949 0.053724 0.079549
2025-11-02 0.007346 0.011138 0.016628 0.025175 0.038193 0.057359 0.087875
2025-11-09 0.006598 0.010308 0.015843 0.024721 0.038665 0.059830 0.094597
2025-11-16 0.006140 0.009868 0.015584 0.025018 0.040269 0.064092 0.104393
2025-11-23 0.005629 0.009288 0.015049 0.024810 0.041027 0.067051 0.112310
2025-11-30 0.005346 0.009046 0.015020 0.025402 0.043103 0.072252 0.124308
2025-12-07 0.004826 0.008362 0.014206 0.024608 0.042781 0.073444 0.129587
2025-12-14 0.004438 0.007874 0.013691 0.024294 0.043280 0.076109 0.137749
2025-12-21 0.004016 0.007293 0.012966 0.023552 0.042963 0.077333 0.143459
2025-12-28 0.003903 0.007248 0.013172 0.024481 0.045709 0.084183 0.160003
2026-01-04 0.003744 0.007106 0.013190 0.025059 0.047846 0.090081 0.175257
2026-01-11 0.003606 0.006988 0.013237 0.025692 0.050128 0.096414 0.191872
2026-01-18 0.003376 0.006676 0.012895 0.025544 0.050884 0.099893 0.203161
2026-01-25 0.003185 0.006422 0.012643 0.025548 0.051930 0.103998 0.216033
2026-02-01 0.002957 0.006075 0.012180 0.025087 0.051996 0.106154 0.225062
2026-02-08 0.002831 0.005925 0.012095 0.025388 0.053643 0.111618 0.241473
2026-02-15 0.002661 0.005670 0.011778 0.025178 0.054196 0.114859 0.253384
2026-02-22 0.002584 0.005603 0.011842 0.025778 0.056521 0.121991 0.274387